A Child's Chance for Success Begins at Birth<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
Author: J. Michael Sharman
 
 
Why can't Johnny read? Or write? Or understand calculus and trigonometry?
Some say it's because of the parents' lack of money. "There is no question that poverty, and particularly generational poverty, is the strongest indicator of student success," a <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />South Carolina educator claims.[1]
Others say it is the school's lack of money management. An editorial in the Detroit News said the problem is that, "Administrative costs are eating away at classroom money."[2]
But then there are those like the editorial writer in the Washington D.C. Examiner who points out, "You can't buy student achievement," and backs up that opinion with the irritating statistic that the District of Columbia spends more on education per child ($15,081) than any other jurisdiction, yet it ranked a lowly 31st on the recently released child's Chance-for-Success Index.[3]
 "The idea behind the index," explains Chance-for-Success Index project editor Lynn Olson, "was to get a sense of what a child's chances for success are across the whole continuum. We wanted to capture what would happen if you dropped a newborn into state A versus state B, and build an empirical picture around that. What difference would it make in their life prospects?"[4]
The Index, which ranked a child's life prospects according to 13 "Success Indicators", was topped by Virginia, even though its per-pupil expenditure of $9,382 is lower than the national average of $9,762. New Mexico, which spent only $223 less per pupil than #1 Virginia, ranked dead last. [5]
Since there obviously is not a direct correlation between the amount a state spends on a student and the student's success, maybe the educators and policy makers ought to look a little closer to home – literally -- for the key to a child's chance of success.
The key to a child's success, says a study from the National Center for Educational Statistics, is an intact two-biological parent family.  In them, 43% of the kids  get mostly A's; only 10% ever repeat a grade; and only 13% are ever suspended or expelled.
By comparison, in homes where only the mother is present, children are one-third less likely to get mostly A's. They are 80% more likely to repeat a grade, and twice as likely to get suspended or expelled.[6]
A research report appropriately entitled, "Parent Absence or Poverty: Which Matters More?" compared income-equivalent intact and non-intact family structures and concluded that residing in a single-parent or step-parent home is correlated with many poor results for the children such as lower rates of completing high school or starting college, and higher rates of arrests, out-of-wedlock pregnancy, and drug use. [7]
A study reported in the American Journal of Economics and Sociology is equally pessimistic for non-traditional families: "[C]hildren in single-parent homes live in families with lower average incomes, are more likely to suffer school and/or residential dislocation, and suffer more sexual abuse. The quality of parenting may also suffer, where quality of parenting is defined as time spent with children and the level of parental involvement in their children's education and in their children's other activities."[8]
A very un-Southern California result came out of a UCLA study which had the stunning conclusion that step-parents simply cannot give a child the same benefits as a biological parent: "On average, youth living with a single mother are roughly twice as likely as other youth to drop out of high school, become pregnant, and be arrested. At the same time, when a single mother marries, some, but not much, of the apparent disadvantages go away."[9]
Why can't Johnny read? Why isn't Jane a success?
When the states' Chance-for-Success Index rankings are lined up with their out-of-wedlock birthrates, the answer becomes very clear. The #1 state, Virginia, had an unwed birthrate of 30.33%. The states at the bottom of the heap: Louisiana,  New Mexico, and Arizona,  had unwed births of 40.40%, 46.91%, and 47.01%, respectively.[10]
The consistent result when one compares the Chance-for-Success Index rankings[11] with the National Center for Health Statistics charts[12] is that the lower an out-of-wedlock birth rate, the higher the state's Chance-for-Success scores.
What is the best state for your baby's life prospects? The correct answer is: the state of matrimony.

[1] "S.C. RANKS LOW FOR CHILD SUCCESS", The Sun News (Myrtle Beach, S.C.) Jan 4, 2007

[2] "Michigan must close gap in its students' education" Op-Ed page, Detroit News, January 30, 2007 "http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070130/OPINION01/701300326/1026/SCHOOLS

[3] Editorial: "Virginia students are most likely to succeed"
http://www.examiner.com/a-514972~Editorial__Virginia_students_are_most_likely_to_succeed.html

[4] http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/moneyhappy/20126

[5] Editorial: "Virginia students are most likely to succeed"
http://www.examiner.com/a-514972~Editorial__Virginia_students_are_most_likely_to_succeed.html

[6]National Center for Educational Statistics,  http://nces.ed.gov/programs/quarterly/vol_3/3_2/q2-5.asp , Citing Zill 1996; McLanahan and Sandefur 1994; Lee 1993

[7] Duncan, G.J., and Brooks-Gunn, J., eds., "Parent Absence or Poverty: Which Matters More,"  in Consequences of growing up poor. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1997.

[8] Painter, Gary and Levine David I., "Daddies, devotion and dollars: How do they matter for youth?" American Journal of Economics and Sociology, The,  Oct, 2004

[9]  Painter, Gary and Levine David I. "Family Structure and Youths' Outcomes: Which Correlations are Causal?" School of Policy, Planning, and Development, University of Southern California, Institute of Industrial Relations, Working Paper Series, Working Paper no. 69, 1999, http://repositories.cdlib.org/iir/iirwps/iirwps-069-98

[10] National Center for Health Statistics, Table 1-29. Live Births by Plurality, by Race and Hispanic Origin of Mother: United States and Each State, 2002,
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/statab/natfinal2002.annvol1_29.pdf , and
National Center for Health Statistics, Table 1-20. Number of births to unmarried women by race and Hispanic origin of mother by age of mother: United States and each State, 2002 http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/statab/natfinal2002.annvol1_20.pdf , and
"Quality Counts 2007" http://www.edweek.org/apps/qc2007/state_compare.html

[11] "Quality Counts 2007" http://www.edweek.org/apps/qc2007/state_compare.html

[12] National Center for Health Statistics, Table 1-20. Number of births to unmarried women by race and Hispanic origin of mother by age of mother: United States and each State, 2002 http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/statab/natfinal2002.annvol1_20.pdf , and